Rapid risk assessment tool for animal disease risk assessment, method development project

Rapid risk assessments are used whenever there is a need for a rough estimate of risk soon after the threat arises for potential emergency risk management activities. Rapid risk assessment is usually based on inadequate knowledge or expert opinions and compared with thorough risk assessment it gives a less reliable and less accurate result. Rapid risk assessments can be challenging because they are produced in a short time when the data are limited and the situation is changing rapidly.

The tool we are developing will be used for animal disease entry assessment, when a new disease or a case of a disease has been observed in an area significant to Finland (Bluetongue in Sweden and African swine fever in Russian Karelia as historical examples). The tool will consider different routes of entry such as the movements of animals, humans and fomites. The overall risk estimate comprises estimate for routes of entry and an estimate of the impact of the risk. An expert group is used in the development of this tool in order to reflect the risk management needs as well as possible.

Research group

Jonna Kyyrö (Evira)
Leena Sahlström (Evira)
Tapani Lyytikäinen (Evira)

Timetable

2013

Funding

Evira

Further information

Jonna Kyyrö

Publications

Kyyrö, J., Sahlström, L., Lyytikäinen, T. NORA - a rapid risk assessment tool for qualitative release risk assessment.
ISVEE,2. - 7.11.2015 Merida, Mexico. Proceedings, p. P217.
Kyyrö, J., Sahlström, L., Lyytikäinen, T.
NORA-a rapid tool for qualitative risk assessment.
Eläinlääkäripäivät 2. - 4.12.2015 Helsinki. Luentokokoelma, s. 326.

Oral presentations

Kyyrö, J.
Alustavia tuloksia afrikkalaisen sikaruton maahantuloriskistä nopealla riskinarviointityökalulla.
Alustavia tuloksia riskinarvioinnista, 16.5. 2014 Helsinki.
Kyyrö, J.
Nopea eläintautiriskinarviointi - mitä ja miksi?
Seminaari elintarvikkeiden, eläintautien ja kasvinterveyden riskinarvioinnista, 15.4.2013 Helsinki.
Kyyrö, J.
Nopea eläintautiriskinarviointityökalu.
Epidemian kurssi, eläinlääketieteellinen tiedekunta, 30.9.2013 Helsinki.