This Euphresco project seeks to use quantitative modeling approaches for horizon scanning to identify and
prioritize potential pests much more rapidly than traditional horizon scanning methods. The
quantitative modeling will consist of multiple layers including, but not limited to, high throughput climate suitability and ecological modelling, machine learning techniques, host distributions, and
rapid risk assessment criteria.
Given the relative maturity of climate suitability modeling for assessing climate-based establishment risks, the majority of the work will focus on the rapid risk assessment criteria such as vulnerable/potential hosts in locations of interest, pathway risk factors such as trade or dispersion traits, and quantification of uncertainties.
This project will focus on integrating these tools and data together for comprehensive and quantitative horizon scanning for novel plant pests, including the ability to prioritize the potential pests identified by a horizon scan for formal pest risk assessment and general surveillance.
The ultimate goal of this topic is to have an open-source, maintainable, and robust toolkit for conducting horizon scans, applicable to any country or region of interest, that can be directly integrated into regulatory activities.
Project partners
- Canadian Food Inspection Agency
- US Department of Agriculture, Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service
- Department for Environment Food and Rural Affairs, UK
- Edmund Mach Foundation, Italy
- Agroscope, Switzerland
- CAB International
- Centre of Excellence for Biosecurity Risk Analysis, Australia
- University of Guyana
- Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences
- University College Dublin
- Finnish Food Authority
Timetable
2025–2028
Funding
Participating organizations
More information
juha.tuomola@ruokavirasto.fi